For our part, we’re looking at an interesting article appearing in The Economist this week discusses the findings from a study done by two academics about the history of climate-induced warfare.

The study, by Richard Tol of the Economic and Social Research Institute in Dublin, and Sebastian Wagne of GKSS, a research institute near Hamburg, looked to find whether a correlation existed between climate and the number of conflicts registered over the past thousand years.

Their research concluded that until the mid-18th century more conflicts were registered during periods of low temperature.  And they think the effect on agriculture is the reason why:

Dr Tol and Dr Wagner suggest that in the more remote past the effects of cold weather on harvests led to supply shortages, and that these increased the likelihood of people fighting over food and the land needed to produce it.

However, the research found that the relationship between the two vanished in the mid-18th century, around the time that the Industrial Revolution began to take root:

These developments meant farmers could often produce reasonable yields during colder weather—and even when they could not, long-distance trade provided a buffer against crop failure. Meanwhile, the growth of cities and non-agricultural occupations meant there was money to buy such traded crops.

The lesson to be taken from this, according to the researchers, was that reliable supplies of food could minimise the instances of climate-related conflict. To ensure this, they stress the continued importance of investing in technologies which help improve crop yields and resilience.  The process of sharing knowledge and building local access and capacity for farmers is also key:

[T]he way to minimise the likelihood of climate-induced conflict in the future is to continue the process of crop improvement (for example, by taking advantage of the potential of genetic engineering) so that heat- and drought-tolerant varieties are available; to make farmers aware of these new crops and encourage their use; and to promote free trade and non-agricultural economic development.

This study reinforces the idea that political and social stability (vs. conflict) is related to a reliable supply of food and a coordinated structure of support for the world’s farmers.

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Many development experts are flagging the potential for a global water crisis if better management of our the earth’s water resources is not given more attention.  This includes wider application of existing knowledge as well as further innovation in policy-centred management systems and more funding for crop-related research.

Since the mid-20th century, the global population has roughly doubled while water use has trebled.  When this trend is paired with a shift in dietary choices toward more water-intensive foods (such as meat), the strain on water resources will increase.

The FAO also predicts that under current conditions, the world’s farmers will need 60% more water to feed the almost 9 billion people expected to be living on the earth. Yet, aid for needed projects such as better irrigation systems has been cut in half over the past generation, according to the OECD.

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